WHAT
MAKES ELLEN SUCH A GOOD SAILOR?
Whether
she succeeds or fails in her round-the-world record
attempt, MacArthur could become only the second person
ever to sail solo non-stop around the world on a
multihull boat. Six
times more people than that have stood on the moon. More
than 1,800 have climbed Everest. Four men, great
sailors all, have tried and failed to match the feat of
Frenchman Francis Joyon, the first to succeed.
So
what is it about this 28-year-old 5ft 2in woman from the
landlocked county of Derbyshire?
After
all, there are plenty of big, tough, hairy sailors out
there looking for adventure. "That's the
common misconception, that it's all down to
muscle," said Sir Robin Knox-Johnston, the first
person to sail solo non-stop around the world.
Sir
Robin in the English Channel 22 April 1966
SIR
ROBIN COMMENTS:
"Single-handed
sailing is in the mind. The size of a person is really
very, very secondary."
Knox-Johnston,
65, sailed into the record books in 1969 when he won The
Sunday Times Golden Globe Race in his 32ft wooden yacht
Suhaili, becoming the first person to sail non-stop
around the world alone, finishing in 312 days.
He
sailed into Falmouth Harbour on 22nd April, and to the
customs question "Where from?", he simply
replied, "Falmouth". "You need a
mind that can focus, someone who can be happy on their
own, dealing with things on their own, and is incredibly
self-disciplined," he added. "I don't
think [an ability to handle] fear really comes into
it. "Say you're lying in your bunk, you're
tired and you can feel the boat isn't right.
"Most
people would lie there, say 'I'm so tired, I'm just
going to get a bit more rest. It's better for me, then
I'll get up and deal with it'. "The person
who will do well is the one who says, 'I can't sleep
until I've got the boat right', and that requires
determination and mental discipline."
This
is clearly where MacArthur excels.
From
saving her school dinner money to buy her first boat, to
sailing alone around Britain at the age of 18 on a 21ft
yacht, to camping in a French boatyard while re-fitting
another, MacArthur displayed phenomenal
single-mindedness. Success bred success, and the
union with business partner Mark Turner spawned - after
a lot more determination, soul-searching and hard work -
an ongoing multi-million-pound sponsorship deal with
Kingfisher, parent company of current title sponsors
B&Q.
It's
just as challenging for her now as it was for me
Sir
Robin said: "She's had very good PR.
"She came second in the Vendee Globe but because
there was such tremendous interest in a diminutive young
girl doing it, most people can't remember who came
first." The funds enabled state-of-the-art
equipment to be developed and boats designed specially
for solo sailing and MacArthur's unique physical
attributes.
Technology
has changed dramatically since Knox-Johnston's day, with
satellite navigation, satellite phones, instant weather
forecasts and electronic safety beacons now standard.
Joyon opted not to use outside weather assistance, but
has since admitted that was a mistake. "That
increases Joyon's feat but it doesn't in any way
diminish Ellen's," said Knox-Johnston, who pointed
out that MacArthur's B&Q trimaran was 20ft shorter
and therefore slower.
The
veteran yachtsman also said that while the new
technology could be seen to offer a perceived safety net
- inspiring some reckless sailors to take more risks -
rescue is still not guaranteed and the hazard remains
the same. "The world has moved on. We've got
all this modern equipment and people would be mad if
they didn't use it," he said. "I don't think
the challenge is any less, it's just different. It's
just as challenging for her now as it was for me. The
course is the same."
DAY
67: B&Q'S ADVANTAGE WILL BE NEEDED FOR HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD...
Wednesday, 2 February 2005 at 09:08
KEY
DATA DAY 66 0710 GMT:
Distance ahead: 827 miles
Time ahead: 3 days 10 hours [representing 48.18% of time
remaining] calculated using the time it took for Joyon
to get to the same Distance to Finish as Ellen's current
position
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 33 05 N / 028 50 W (330 miles SSW Azores / 630
miles W Madeira)
Average Boat speed: 19.99 knots (heading N)
True Wind speed: 23.9 knots (direction SE by E)
Sea temperature: 18.4 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 25,749 miles at an average speed
of 16.3 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business
Broadband)
ETA:[Estimated Time of Arrival is based on the latest
weather information available to the team today, as the
weather evolves the ETA will be updated. This refers to
crossing the finish line, arrival in Falmouth would be 7
to 14 hours later]
Earliest: Monday/Tuesday
Average: Wednesday
Latest: Thursday
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check home page
for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* EVOLUTION OF HIGH PRESSURE TURNING RECORD ATTEMPT INTO
A GAME OF DICE with very high stakes, as B&Q heads
north to pass through the islands of the Azores later
tonight. Every minute of MacArthur's current 3 day 10
hour lead is going to be needed to soak up the losses as
she sails into the high pressure tomorrow. Joyon doesn't
have amazing mileages for the next couple of days but
from Saturday he starts to wind up to blistering speeds
directly towards the finish (see mileages below). The
breeze will stay from the south-east today but
Commanders expect lulls down to 15 knots and gusts up to
28 knots through to midnight tonight. The wind will
start to diminish in the early hours of tomorrow as
B&Q gets closer to the ridge of high pressure,
bringing a very slow period from tomorrow afternoon
through Friday. There is no avoiding the high pressure -
it is too big, with the ridge axis from NE-SW stretching
across MacArthur's pass - and the million dollar
question is how quickly B&Q can cross the ridge to
get to the other side and into more breeze. MacArthur
spent 4 days trying to cross a similar high pressure
ridge in the South Atlantic - in fact, she never caught
it and the impact on her advantage was that it was cut
to just 6 hours on Day 60 from 4 days. If and when she
gets across, MacArthur faces an upwind battle to the
finish line [see Commanders' Weather analysis below].
* LEAD MASKS THE SHEER HARD WORK OF KEEPING B&Q ON
TRACK FOR THE RECORD as the breeze from the south-east
fluctuates wildly in strength forcing Ellen to find
every last drop of energy to make just 'one' more more
sail change. The average wind speed figures reported
hourly do not tell the whole story, as Ellen struggles
with the dilemma of finding the energy in the lulls to
increase sail, then taking the decision to get more sail
up, for the breeze to start punching upwards leaving
MacArthur no choice but to decrease sail: "I don't
know whether to change up to the Solent or not [now on 2
reefs and smaller staysail], it's right on the limit in
the gusts but I've only got 18 knots right now. I need
to be going faster, but the sail change takes me so long
now that I'm tired. And I don't want to risk breaking
the Solent. The problem is that we have to make more
gains now, as the weather looks terrible ahead. Current
routing shows me in late Tuesday, and the trend is
getting worse. Now is the only time to make gains. Sail
changes taking my twice the time they were earlier in
the trip" It was never going to be easy, and
MacArthur knows more than anyone else that it was her
choice to take on the record, and she never asks for
sympathy. This is what pushes her on to drag herself one
more time on to a lurching, soaking deck to make another
sail change. Because now is the time to sail fast, to
put more miles on the clock before the B&Q sails
into the high pressure of light winds that stand between
her and the finish off Ushant.
* LESS THAN 1,500 MILES TO GO ON THE DIRECT ROUTE TO THE
FINISH and VMG required [Velocity Made Good to the
finish] to break the record has dropped another notch to
8.4 knots. Of course, MacArthur cannot sail the direct
route [approximately 30 degrees to the finish of Ushant
right now] as her course is dictated by the current
weather and negotiating the weather system ahead. For
now, B&Q has sailed 25,749 miles at an average speed
of 16.3 knots and her Distance Made Good to the finish
is still out-pacing that of Francis Joyon - 412 miles to
IDEC's 278 miles over the last 24 hour period.
* WHAT VMG COULD SHE DO BETWEEN HERE AND THE FINISH?
What VMG can Ellen make in light winds? Hard to go
significantly faster than the wind, whatever direction
it is, so 6 knots wind, speed could be 7 knots and of
course not necessary in the right direction so VMG of 3
to 7 knots say. In upwind conditions [ie tacking,
zig-zagging against the wind], boat speed maximum is
about 14 knots if the seastate allows it, and of course
in that situation heading is unlikely to be on the
direct route, so VMG could be less than 9 knots. This is
why every mile of gain now might be needed, with a
forecast of light winds followed by upwind conditions...
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
In the rules of record attempts, skippers are allowed to
use the advice of shore-based weather experts to assist
them with their choices. Ellen is working with two
teams, principally Commanders Weather in the USA, backed
up by Meeno Schrader in Germany.
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Wednesday,
February 2, 2005
Another decent 24 hours of sailing expected for Ellen
but ESE winds and boat speeds will be on a slow decline
as she gets further north and closer to high pressure
just SW-S of Ireland. Ellen should be tracking 30-50
miles west of San Miguel Island in the Azores late
Wednesday night.
But expect the high to elongate south-westward Thursday
and Thursday night into a narrow NE-SW ridge axis. Ellen
will have to cross this ridge axis and as she gets north
of 40n her wind speeds will drop to 8 kts. Thursday
afternoon thru Friday will be a very slow period.
Ellen is expected to cross a frontal boundary late
Friday and the hope is
that high pressure following this front will track ENE
toward the northern British Isles over the weekend. If
it does then Ellen will have decent 15-25 kt breeze to
work with. The problem though will be the direction
which will become
northerly behind the front for Saturday then clock to NE
Sunday and then perhaps E -ESE by Monday.
This will not be the direction Ellen wants as it will be
tough beating into this wind, but it is some wind to
work with and may be able to get her home for the
record.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Wed, Feb 2- winds stronger west and lighter east
03: 110-130/20-25 g 28
06: 110-130/18-23 g 28
12: 100-120/17-22 g 25, near 33 50N/28 30W
18: 090-110/15-20 g 25
Cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy- maybe a brief
squally shower.
Gusts to 28-30 kts in squalls but lulls down to 12-15
kts possible
Thu, Feb 3- winds diminish as you get closer to ridge
00: 090-110/13-18 - wind stronger W, lighter to the E
06: 100-120/12-17- passing between San Miguel and
Terceira
12: 110-130/10-15, near 39 20n/26 30w
18: 120-140/ 8-12
FRANCIS JOYON 24 HOUR RUNS
Francis Joyon's 24 hour runs. These are VMG distances,
ie distance sailed towards the finish, not through the
water:
26.1.05 IDEC 162 miles / B&Q 388 miles
27.1.05 IDEC 130 miles / B&Q 367 miles
28.1.05 IDEC 232 miles / B&Q 258 miles
29.1.05 IDEC 257 miles / B&Q 317 miles
30.1.05 IDEC 300 miles / B&Q 374 miles
31.1.05 IDEC 299 miles / B&Q 398 miles
1.2.05 IDEC 278 miles / B&Q 412 miles
2.2.05 IDEC 221 miles
3.2.05 IDEC 212 miles
4.2.05 IDEC 162 miles
5.2.05 IDEC 284 miles
6.2.05 IDEC 383 miles
7.2.05 IDEC 400 miles
8.2.05 IDEC 439 miles
9.2.05 IDEC 345 miles
[dates normalised to Ellen's]
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MacArthur
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ELLEN MACARTHUR -
SOLO NAVIGATION RECORD ATTEMPT
