CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING KYOTO PROTOCOL MONTREAL NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2005

Montreal, Canada is hosting the next meeting on the future of Kyoto Protocol, the global treaty to curb global warming emissions. This is the first meeting since the treaty entered into force earlier this year, and it is expected to draw up to 10,000 participants, including delegates from 189 countries and the European Union.

The main topic of this meeting will be what happens after the protocol's first commitment period ends in 2012. The object of these talks is not to assign the next set of commitments, but to establish a timetable and process for concluding an agreement on the next round of mandatory reduction targets by 2008. These discussions about "post-2012" plans are needed to add confidence to the newly formed emissions trading markets that have developed since the treaty became legally binding in February 2005.

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The Kyoto Protocol or Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international treaty on climate change.

Description

The Kyoto Protocol is actually an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.

Objectives

The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" UNFCCC-2.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted an average global rise in temperature of 1.4°C (2.5°F) to 5.8°C (10.4°F) between 1990 and 2100 (see report). Some current estimates indicate that even if successfully and completely implemented, the Kyoto Protocol will not provide a significant reduction in temperature despite the large cut in emissions. Because of this, many critics and environmentalists question the value of the Kyoto Protocol, should subsequent measures fail to produce deeper cuts in the future.

Proponents also note that Kyoto is a first step Ucar.edu, as requirements to meet the UNFCCC will be modified until the objective is met, as required by UNFCCC Article 4.2(d).UNFCCC-4

Status of the agreement

The treaty was negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, opened for signature on March 16, 1998, and closed on March 15, 1999. The agreement came into force on February 16, 2005 following ratification by Russia on November 18, 2004. As of September 2005, a total of 158 countries have ratified the agreement (representing over 61% of global emissions) UNFCCC.int Duwe, Matthias. Notable exceptions include the United States and Australia.

According to terms of the protocol, it enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.". Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on May 23, 2002 when Iceland ratified. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55 percent" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective February 16, 2005.

Kyoto Protocol participation: dark green indicates countries signed & ratified the treaty, yellow indicates states that have signed & hope to ratify treaty. Notably, Australia and the United States have signed but decline to ratify it!

Details of the agreement

It is an agreement negotiated as an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, which was adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992). All parties to the UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to the UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.

Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to the UNFCCC.

Financial commitments

The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay, and supply technology to, other countries for climate-related studies and projects. This was originally agreed in the UNFCCC.

Emissions trading

Each Annex I country has agreed to limit emissions to the levels described in the protocol, but many countries have limits that are set above their current production. These "extra amounts" can be purchased by other countries on the open market. So, for instance, Russia currently easily meets its targets, and can sell off its credits for millions of dollars to countries that don't yet meet their targets, to Canada for instance. This rewards countries that meet their targets, and provides financial incentives to others to do so as soon as possible:

Countries also receive credits through various shared "clean energy" programs and "carbon dioxide sinks" in the form of forests and other systems that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

A Washington D.C.-based NGO, in the report pdf.wri.org "Getting It Right: Emerging Markets for Storing Carbon in Forests", assumes values of $30-40/ton in the US and $70-80/ton in Europe. On 18 April 2001, The Netherlands purchased credits for 4 megatons of carbon dioxide emissions from Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic; this was part of the ERUPT procurement procedure. These purchase agreements however contained conditions precedent, e.g. referring to the financing of the underlying projects. Since several of these conditions have not been met, the amount of purchased credits has since then decreased.

Revisions

The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the Conference of Parties (COP). COP6 attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).

In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get Japan and Russia in as well by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.

COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 – 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the protocol.

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from November 28 to December 9, 2005, along with the 11th conference to the parties to the UNFCCC (COP11).

Current positions of governments

Position of Russia

Vladimir Putin approved the treaty on November 4, 2004 and Russia officially notified the United Nations of its ratification on November 18, 2004. With that, the Russian ratification is complete. The issue of Russian ratification was particularly closely watched in the international community, as the accord was brought into force 90 days after Russian ratification (February 16, 2005).

President Putin had earlier decided in favour of the protocol in September 2004, along with the Russian cabinet Mosnews.com. As anticipated after this, ratification by the lower (22 October 2004) and upper house of parliament did not encounter any obstacles.

The Kyoto Protocol limits emissions to a percentage increase or decrease from their 1990 levels. Since 1990 the economies of most countries in the former Soviet Union have collapsed, as have their greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, Russia should have no problem meeting its commitments under Kyoto, as its current emission levels are substantially below its targets.

It is debatable whether Russia will benefit from selling emissions credits to other countries in the Kyoto Protocol [1].

Position of the European Union

On May 31, 2002, all fifteen then-members of the European Union deposited the relevant ratification paperwork at the UN. The EU produces around 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and has agreed to a cut, on average, by 8% from 1990 emission levels. The EU has consistently been one of the major supporters of the Kyoto Protocol, negotiating hard to get wavering countries on board.

In December, 2002, the EU created a system of emissions trading in an effort to meet these tough targets. Quotas were introduced in six key industries: energy, steel, cement, glass, brick making, and paper/cardboard. There are also fines for member nations that fail to meet their obligations, starting at €40/ton of carbon dioxide in 2005, and rising to €100/ton in 2008. Current EU projections suggest that by 2008 the EU will be at 4.7% below 1990 levels.

The position of the EU is not without controversy in Protocol negotiations, however. Emission levels of former Warsaw Pact countries who now are members of the EU have already been reduced as a result of their economic restructuring. This may mean that the region's 1990 baseline level is inflated compared to that of other developed countries, thus giving European economies a potential competitive advantage over the U.S.

Position of the United States

The United States of America, although a signatory to the protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from the protocol. The protocol is non-binding over the United States until ratified.

On July 25, 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was to be negotiated, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95–0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On November 12, 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol. Both Gore and Senator Joseph Lieberman indicated that the protocol would not be acted upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations CNN. The Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification.

The Clinton Administration released an economic analysis in July 1998, prepared by the Council of Economic Advisors, which concluded that with emissions trading among the Annex B/Annex I countries, and participation of key developing countries in the "Clean Development Mechanism" — which grants the latter business-as-usual emissions rates through 2012 — the costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol could be reduced as much as 60% from many estimates. Other economic analyses, however, prepared by the Congressional Budget Office and the Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA), and others, demonstrated a potentially large decline in GDP from implementing the Protocol.

The current President, George W. Bush, has indicated that he does not intend to submit the treaty for ratification, not because he does not support the general idea, but because of the strain he believes the treaty would put on the economy; he emphasizes the uncertainties he asserts are present in the climate change issue Corn, David (2001). Furthermore, he is not happy with the details of the treaty. For example, he does not support the split between Annex I countries and others. Bush said of the treaty:

According to the information from EIA, USA, recently China energy-related usage produced 3,541 million metric tons of CO₂, while the U.S. produced 5,796 million metric tons. DOE China DOE USA

In June 2002, the American Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the "Climate Action Report 2002". Some observers have interpreted this report as being supportive of the protocol, although the report itself does not explicitly endorse the protocol. Later that year, Congressional researchers who examined the legal status of the Protocol advised that signature of the UNFCCC imposes an obligation to refrain from undermining the Protocol's object and purpose, and that while the President probably cannot implement the Protocol alone, Congress can create compatible laws on its own initiative.Opencrs.com

The White House has come under criticism for downplaying reports that link human activity and greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and that a White House official and former oil industry advocate, Philip Cooney, adjusted descriptions of climate research that had already been approved by government scientists. The White House has denied that Philip Cooney watered down reports. BBC (2005) In June 2005, State Department papers showed the administration thanking Exxon executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, including the US stance on Kyoto. Input from the business lobby group Global Climate Coalition was also a factor. Guardian

At the G-8 meeting in June 2005 administration officials expressed a desire for "practical commitments industrialized countries can meet without damaging their economies". According to those same officials, the United States is on track to fulfill its pledge to reduce its carbon intensity 18 percent by 2012. Washington Post Paul Krugman notes that the use of "carbon intensity" means the target reduction of 18 percent is still actually an increase in overall emissions.NY Times

The position Bush has taken on climate change has shifted with a gradual increasing acceptance that global warming is a problem, and that it is partly caused by human activity. The United States has signed the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a pact that allows those countries to set their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol whilst being more flexible whilst critics have said the pact will be ineffective without any enforcement measures. Nine north-eastern states and in California, Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, along with 187 mayors from US towns and cities, have pledged to adopt Kyoto style legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Steve Hounslow, Roger Harrabin (2005)

Position of Canada

On December 17, 2002, Canada ratified the treaty. While numerous polls have shown support for the Kyoto protocol around 70% IPSOS-NA Graves, Boucher (2002) (pdf), there is still some opposition, particularly by some business groups, non-governmental climate scientists and energy concerns, using arguments similar to those being used in the US. There is also a fear that since US companies will not be affected by the Kyoto Protocol that Canadian companies will be at a disadvantage in terms of trade.

As of 2005, the result has been limited to an ongoing "war of words", primarily between the government of Alberta (Canada's primary oil and gas producer) and the federal government. However, there are fears that Kyoto could threaten national unity, especially in Alberta.

After January 2006, the liberal government was replaced by a conservative minority govenment under Stephen Harper, who previously has expressed opposition to Kyoto. It is currently unclear if this will have any effect on the discussion and Canada's obligations under the treaty.

Position of China

China has signed the treaty; as a "developing country" this does not impose emissions restrictions on it.

Position of Australia

Australia has refused to sign the Agreement due to issues with the protocol. The Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, has argued that the protocol would cost Australians jobs, and that Australia is already doing enough to cut emissions. The Federal Opposition, the Australian Labor Party is in full support of the protocol and it is currently a heavily debated issue within the political establishment. The opposition claims signing the protocol is a "risk free" prospect as they claim Australia would already be meeting the obligations the protocol would impose. As of 2000, Australia was the world's eleventh largest emitter per capita of greenhouse gases.

The Australian government, along with the United States, agreed to sign the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate at the ASEAN regional forum on 28 July 2005.

Position of India

India signed and ratified the Protocol in August, 2002. Since India is exempted from the framework of the treaty, it is expected to gain from the protocol in terms of transfer of technology and related foreign investments. At the G-8 meeting in June 2005, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pointed out that the per-capita emission rates of the developing countries are a tiny fraction of those in the developed world. Following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, India maintains that the major responsibility of curbing emission rests with the developed countries, which have accumulated emissions over a long period of time.

Common but differentiated responsibility

The position of some industrialized nations on developing countries has often been criticized in the developing world. For example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to a set of a "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that

In other words, China, India, and other developing countries were exempt from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol because they were not the main contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions during the industrialization period that is believed to be causing today's climate change.

Support for Kyoto

Advocates of the Kyoto Protocol claim that reducing these emissions is crucially important; carbon dioxide, they believe, is causing the earth's atmosphere to heat up. This is supported by attribution analysis.

The governments of all of the countries whose parliaments have ratified the Protocol are supporting it. Most prominent among advocates of Kyoto have been the European Union and many environmentalist organizations. The United Nations and some individual nations' scientific advisory bodies (including the G8 national science academies) have also issued reports favoring the Kyoto Protocol.

An international day of action is planned for 3 December 2005, to coincide with the Meeting of the Parties in Montreal. The planned demonstrations are endorsed by the Assembly of Movements of the World Social Forum. Globefox.com

A group of major Canadian corporations have recently called for urgent action regarding climate change, and have suggested that Kyoto is only a first step.CBC

On 3 January 2006, after the Montreal accords a group of people assembled a petition with the goal to reach 50 million signatures supporting Kyoto Protocol and its goal by January 2008 - the starting date set by the Kyoto Protocol to show average 5% reduction in emissions. This petition was set out to give civil support and ratification to the international fight against Global Warming on a base of world wide active cooperation. Many US and Australian citizens are signing the petition and thus criticise their leaders choices on this matter. People of the World ratifying Kyoto Protocol

Grassroots support in the US

In the US, there is at least one student group Kyoto Now! which aims to use student interest to support pressure towards reducing emissions as targeted by the Kyoto Protocol compliance.

As of November 15, 2004, nine Northeastern US states are involved in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) RGGI, which is a state level emissions capping and trading program. It is believed that the state-level program will indirectly apply pressure on the federal government by demonstrating that reductions can be achieved without being a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol.

As of December 2, 2005, 192 US cities representing more than 40 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.

Opposition to Kyoto

The two major countries currently opposed to the treaty are the USA and Australia. Some public policy experts who are skeptical of global warming see Kyoto as a scheme to either retard the growth of the world's industrial democracies or to transfer wealth to the third world in what they claim is a global socialism initiative. Contrariwise, some argue that the protocol does not go far enough to curb greenhouse emissions (Niue, The Cook Islands, and Nauru added notes to this effect when signing the protocol UNFCCC kpstats PDF).

Cost-benefit analysis

It is possible to try to evaluate the Kyoto Protocol by comparing costs and gains, though there are large uncertainties. Economic analyses disagree as to whether the Kyoto Protocol is more expensive than the global warming that it avoids; the recent Copenhagen consensus project analysis found it to have an overall benefit, though less than an "optimal" carbon tax. Defenders of the Kyoto Protocol argue however that while the initial greenhouse gas cuts may have little effect, they set the political precedent for bigger (and more effective) cuts in the future. Also, they demonstrate commitment to the precautionary principle. UoGuelph pdf

Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate is an agreement between six Asia-Pacific nations: Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. It was introduced at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), regional forum on July 28, 2005. The pact allows those countries to set their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol whilst being more flexible whilst critics have said the pact will be ineffective without any enforcement measures. See article Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

Background

Fact Sheets

COP 11 Info:

Bush Administration Policy:

More on Global Warming:

The U.S. and Global Warming:

Contact NET at COP 11

John Stanton
Director, Global Warming Campaign
In Montreal November 28 - December 9
Cell: (202) 258-3413

Brandon MacGillis
Deputy Communications Director
In Montreal December 4 - 9
Cell: (202) 320-9448

Global Warming Animations & Graphics

Outside Links

Climate change is a global challenge and requires a global solution. Greenhouse gas emissions have the same impact on the atmosphere whether they originate in Washington, London or Beijing. Consequently, action by one country to reduce emissions will do little to slow global warming unless other countries act as well. Ultimately, an effective strategy will require commitments and action by all the major emitting countries.

The international response to climate change was launched in 1992, at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, with the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Convention established a long-term objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". It also set a voluntary goal of reducing emissions from developed countries to 1990 levels by 2000 - a goal that most countries did not meet.

Recognizing that stronger action was needed, countries negotiated the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding targets to reduce emissions 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The Protocol entered into force on February 16, 2005, which made the Protocol's emissions targets binding legal commitments for those industrialized countries that ratified it (the United States and Australia have not ratified it). In addition, the market-based mechanisms established under the Protocol, including international emissions trading and the Clean Development Mechanism, became fully operational with the Protocol's entry into force.

Attention now is turning to strengthening the international framework for the years following the Kyoto Protocol's initial commitment period (2008 - 2012). The overriding challenge is to forge an agreement that includes all major emitting countries - both developed and developing - and begins signficant long-term reductions in global emissions. In 2003, the Pew Center engaged more than 100 experts, policymakers, and stakeholders from nearly three dozen countries to address this issue. This initiative continues with the Climate Dialogue at Pocantico, a series of off-line discussions among 25 senior policymakers and stakeholders from 15 countries exploring options for next steps in the international climate effort. The final report of the Pocantico dialogue was released on November 15, 2005.

The response to the potential threat of global warming has differed among the nations and regions of the world. Some countries have taken the call to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions very seriously, and have implemented national emissions standards and emissions reduction targets. Emissions trading schemes have been established and tested, new carbon taxes have been imposed, and ‘sustainability’ and ‘environmental externalities’ have become factors of consideration in economic development schemes. However, not all nations have jumped on the bandwagon. While 186 countries have ratified the UNFCCC, only 74 have ratified the, arguably, more legally binding Kyoto Protocol.

There are several reasons for the ‘holdout’ nations’ reluctance to make an emissions reduction commitment. One is the belief that there is not enough scientific evidence to prove that human activities and increased carbon dioxide emissions are in fact responsible for rising temperatures. Numerous scientific studies can be used to back up claims on both sides of the argument, and it is therefore difficult for some policy makers to justify potentially costly actions that may or may not yield the desired results.

Beyond simple cost is fear over the greater potential economic impacts of forced compliance in the arena of a global market where not all the players are being monitored. Because developing countries do not, at this time, have GHG emissions reduction commitments or monitoring requirements, some believe they have a competitive advantage for production of goods and services that are energy and GHG intensive. Therefore some nations, including the United States, have declined to even consider ratification of the Kyoto Protocol until developing countries are forced to make commitments and the overall potential economic impacts of Kyoto Protocol implementation can be more thoroughly studied.

For a detailed look at what other nations have been doing to meet their UNFCCC obligations, see the collection of National Communications available at http://unfccc.int/resource/natcom/index.html.

Below find examples of what is being done outside the United States to study and combat global warming.

Canada's National Climate Change Process - National Strategy/Business Plan
National Implementation Strategy & First National Business Plan In October 2000, Joint Ministers of Energy and Environment* publicly released the National Implementation Strategy on Climate Change and the First National Climate Change Business Plan
www.nccp.ca/NCCP/strategy_bus/index_e.html

Canada's National Climate Change Process - Media Room
The Media Room provides access to news releases, speeches and other documents related to Canada's national climate change process. News Releases - National Climate Change Secretariat National Stakeholder Workshops on Climate Change 2002 Media
www.nccp.ca/NCCP/media/index_e.html

Kyoto Protocol: New Meeting of the Parties in Montreal

November 28 to December 9, 2005